Another week, another stellar performance by Saquon Barkley. The star running back was the catalyst in the Philadelphia Eagles’ Week 11 win over the Washington Commanders to put the organization in the driver’s seat in the NFC East race. In Thursday night’s 26-18 victory, Barkley exploded for 146 yards rushing and two touchdowns while adding 52 yards receiving on two receptions.
Again, this is just the latest superstar showing from Barkley, who is playing in his first season with the Eagles since signing in free agency following his tenure with the New York Giants. In his waning years with the Giants, Barkley’s production slowed, which led some to wonder if the tread had run out on his tires. However, this stint with Philly has shown just the opposite and shined a light on how New York was dimming the back.
As Barkley was gallivanting around for nearly 200 scrimmage yards, that topic of conversation was brought back into the forefront by Dallas Cowboys star pass rusher Micah Parsons. Initially, Parsons posted “I blame the giants….” on X as a clear jab toward the organization for Barkley’s resurgence. After that post, however, he did put New York in the crosshairs by ripping the franchise for making folks believe Barkley was cashed and choosing to sign quarterback Daniel Jones over him.
“All jokes aside they giants almost made us believe saquon wasn’t HIM anymore!! [sic]” he posted. “That really says a lot!! Daniel jones was paid over saquon! He was worth more to their franchise!! This really says a lot!!”
All jokes aside they giants almost made us believe saquon wasn’t HIM anymore!! That really says a lot!! Daniel jones was paid over saquon! He was worth more to their franchise!! This really says a lot!!
— Micah Parsons (@MicahhParsons11) November 15, 2024 Of course, Barkley and Parsons have a kinship thanks to their Penn State roots, so he is going to talk up his fellow Nittany Lion. That said, it’s entirely warranted in this case.
This season, Barkley has four games with 140 rushing yards or more, making him the first player to have as many of those games through the first 10 weeks since Shaun Alexander in 2005. He’s also been particularly clutch in the second half, rushing for 738 yards on a 7.2 yards per rush average after halftime this season.
Seems like the type of offensive weapon you’d want to keep around, right? Well, the Giants appear to have thought otherwise, to the delight of the Eagles, who are getting Offensive Player of the Year-caliber play from their back.
PHILADELPHIA — The Philadelphia Eagles took command of the NFC East with a 26-18 victory over the Washington Commanders on Thursday night, and the game wasn’t as close as the score indicated. The Eagles outgained the Commanders 434-264 and averaged 6.2 yards per play to the Commanders’ 4.2.
Philadelphia (8-2) has a two-game lead in the loss column over Washington (7-4) with the victory, as the Eagles have won six in a row. Washington has dropped two straight after a 7-2 start, losing two games on Philadelphia in the divisional standings in five days.
Is the NFC East race over? Are the Commanders figured out? Which overreactions are truly overreactions from Thursday’s showdown and which are reality?
Eagles wrapped up NFC East with win Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
While the Eagles victory over the Commanders was impressive, this isn’t a game that determined the NFC East winner. It’s fair to say this was a “must-win” game for the Eagles in order to take control of the division, one which they have a two-game lead in the loss column with seven games to play.
The Eagles did have a commanding lead in the NFC East after Week 11 last season before they collapsed, but this team is significantly different. This isn’t about what the Eagles will or won’t do in the final seven games. The Commanders have a pretty easy schedule before they face the Eagles again in Week 16.
Washington faces Dallas and Tennessee at home before its bye week. A road game at New Orleans follows on the schedule before the rematch against Philadelphia in Week 16. Washington then finishes with a home date against Atlanta and a road game against Dallas. Four of the next five games are at home, and the next three games are against teams with losing records.
Philadelphia has road dates at Los Angeles and Baltimore, before home games against Carolina and Pittsburgh ahead of the Week 16 showdown at Washington. Because of the Commanders’ schedule, the NFC East is far from over.
Jayden Daniels, Commanders offense has been figured out Overreaction or reality: Reality
Over the last two games, the Commanders have faced two top-10 defenses in the Steelers and Eagles. The results have not been good for offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s unit. Washington has averaged only 253 yards in those two games on just 4.1 yards per play while converting 30.8% of their third downs. The biggest indicator of their struggles is the rushing yards quarterback Jayden Daniels has totaled over the last two games — only 23.
With Daniels limited running the football, that takes away the biggest strength of his game. In that two-game stretch, Daniels has completed 59.1% of his passes for 393 yards with one touchdown to one interception and a 73.9 passer rating — and that one touchdown was in the final minute Thursday with the game already decided. The Commanders lost both games.
Daniels and the Commanders will likely get things back on track against the under .500 teams they will be facing over the next few weeks, but they still have to prove themselves against the very good defenses. That’s the next step for Kingsbury and Daniels going forward.
Saquon Barkley should be a front-runner for MVP Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Lamar Jackson does exist, which makes any case for MVP not as strong as in years past. Yet there’s no denying what Barkley has brought to this Eagles offense.
Barkley had 26 carries for 146 yards and two touchdowns (5.2 yards per carry) and two catches for 52 yards — giving him 198 yards from scrimmage on the night. Thursday was Barkley’s fourth game this season with 140-plus yards, which is the most for any running back through 10 games since Shawn Alexander in 2005 (when Alexander won MVP). Barkley leads the NFL in rushing yards (1,137) and scrimmage yards (1,347) this season, while having 738 of those rushing yards and averaging 7.2 yards per carry in the second half of games. He leads the league in both categories.
The Eagles offense, even when inconsistent, keeps moving the football because of Barkley. They are finishing games because of Barkley as well. If it wasn’t for Barkley, the Eagles wouldn’t be one of the elite teams in the NFL.
Jackson is the front runner for MVP, but Barkley has a much better case than most think. He’s not a front runner yet, but he’s getting there.
It’s possible that, come the 2027 season, the Tennessee Titans will have at least one of their nine home games be played in the late-afternoon window. A kickoff somewhere in the 3 p.m. Central hour that will conclude around dusk, depending on the time of the year.
The Titans will be breaking in what is today known as New Nissan Stadium, a $2 billion-plus project adjacent to their current digs that will make the East Bank sparkle and (very likely) eventually host a Super Bowl.
The sun will continue its usual disappearing act beneath the earth’s horizon and, at some point, the sunlight would pierce through the windows on the west side of the stadium. The rays would be strong into the new stadium. It would be hard for quarterbacks throwing to that end zone — or pass catchers looking back, depending on who has possession — to see what’s in front of them.
Would. Not will. Because the Titans will use what amounts to black-out shades on the glass so that doesn’t take place.
What the Dallas Cowboys have refused to do for more than a decade, the Tennessee Titans have already prepared to do years from now. The Titans, along with the stadium designers and engineers, did a solar analysis in developmental stages of stadium planning, determining where the sun will be every day of the year and when exactly on certain days this could pose a problem.
The solution: use the retractable shades on the accordion-like glass doors to prevent the sun from leaking onto the field.
Last Sunday afternoon, Cowboys receiver CeeDee Lamb couldn’t find the ball on what should have been an easy touchdown catch against the Philadelphia Eagles as he stared into the star 93 million miles away. After the game he said he was “one thousand percent” in favor of putting up shades.
Cowboys owner Jerry Jones likes it the way it is. AT&T Stadium opened in 2009 with the windows like this, and they’ll be staying that way for the foreseeable future. The stadium can and does erect shades for other events like concerts, but not for the Cowboys.
“My biggest thought when we were building it was, ‘Don’t have it look like it’s not outdoors. Make it look like it’s outdoors,'” Jones said. “That stadium was built to feel like it’s outdoors when you’re indoors, and it was built to have sunlight coming in.”
Jones would go on to say the team knows where the sun will be and that playcallers like Kellen Moore have previously accounted for this.
“That really goes under the category of home-field advantage,” Jones said. “It should be an advantage to the home team, so I don’t want to adjust it for one reason because it is an advantage to us. … That’s our advantage. That should be our advantage. We get to play there more and we get to have it as an advantage. It has been an advantage for us to know where the sun is. I don’t want to change that.”
One question many have had goes to the heart of that competitive advantage. Could the Cowboys put up shades when the sun affects the home team? Or, could the Cowboys pull the shades down only when the sun’s rays are impacting the on-field play?
The answer: No.
CBS Sports obtained a copy of the NFL’s policy on stadium procedures leaguewide, and the league has already considered these questions and more.
“At 90 minutes prior to kickoff, the home club is required to notify the Referee whether the roof, wall, and/or curtains shall be open or closed,” the policy reads. “The opening or closing must be completed no later than 60 minutes prior to kickoff. (The designated position for curtains will remain unchanged for the entire game.)”
So whatever is decided at any stadium 90 minutes before is what will remain throughout the duration of the game. But there can be an exception made, and we saw that two weeks ago at State Farm Stadium.
In Week 9, the Cardinals had to close the roof during the game against the Bears because of hail in the Glendale area. This is allowed in the policy since hail is considered a “hazardous condition.” Once it’s closed, it must remain closed for the remainder of the game.
It’s impossible to imagine sunlight would be considered a hazardous condition, so any temporary shades would be permanent for an entire game.
Back to heliocentrism. Most NFL stadiums have north/south oriented fields, which is why you don’t see the sun being such a factor on the field like with the Cowboys.
The Falcons play in Mercedes-Benz Stadium, a round complex with the field that is oriented east/west. But the windowed side of Atlanta’s stadium is on the east, and the Falcons aren’t waking up to play a game at 8 a.m.
U.S. Bank Stadium has a northwest/southeast orientation, but there have been no complaints about the sun by players in Minnesota. Plus, the translucent roof has a “fritting” that diffuses some of the direct light during Vikings games.
In Tennessee, the Titans determined they had to have an east/west field orientation for their future stadium. Soil testing on the available land in the developing East Bank area showed the organization there was really only one way to position the stadium. Hence, the shades.
For as long as there have been people on earth, there have been attempts to hide from the sun’s rays. Except in Jerry’s World.
For just the fifth time in NFL history and only the third in the Super Bowl era (since 1966), there will be at least three games in Week 11 or later featuring teams with a 70% win percentage or better.
One already went down on “Thursday Night Football” with the Philadelphia Eagles improving to 8-2 after defeating the Washington Commanders, who fell to 7-4. Two other such games are in store this week with the Baltimore Ravens (7-3) at the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2) and the Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) at the Buffalo Bills (8-2).
We have surprising outcomes projected here in our latest crop of CBS Sports NFL bold predictions for those two games, plus three other matchups. Let’s dig in.
Titans upset Vikings behind stingy defense player headshot team logo Harold Landry TEN • LB • #58 View Profile Are the 7-2 Minnesota Vikings a real contender? Or are they frauds? Since their Week 6 bye week, they’re 2-2 with losses against the Detroit Lions (31-29) and the Los Angeles Rams (30-20) and narrow wins against the recently benched Joe Flacco and the Indianapolis Colts (21-13) and the Mac Jones-led Jacksonville Jaguars (12-7).
With their Week 10 road win at the 2-8 Jaguars, the 2024 Vikings became the first team to win a game with no touchdowns and three or more turnovers since the 2006 Green Bay Packers, who did so against Minnesota. NFL teams had lost 195 straight games with no touchdowns and three more turnovers. Quarterback Sam Darnold was responsible for all three giveaways with three interceptions, and he now has six passing touchdowns and nine turnovers in his past five games after 11 touchdowns and four turnovers in his first four games. He now leads the NFL with 13 turnovers this season, and averages the third-most turnovers per game (1.11) in his career among active QBs with at least 50 starts. He trails only Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (1.14 turnovers per game) and Cleveland Browns quarterback Jameis Winston (1.27 turnover per game).
Darnold won’t get away with his turnover problem in Week 11 against the 2-7 Tennessee Titans. Their defense is allowing the second-fewest total yards per game this season (273.6), which means Darnold will likely have to march the Vikings offense down the field without too many big-shot plays. Tennessee can also play keep away behind the strength of running back Tony Pollard and its ground game. Pollard’s 666 rushing yards this season are the 11th-most in the NFL, and he leads the league in yards after contact per rush (3.77), among those with at least 100 carries this season. The Titans force Minnesota to feel the consequences of its sloppy play, sending them back home with a loss.
Ravens beat Steelers, drop 30 on NFL’s No. 2 scoring defense player headshot team logo Lamar Jackson BAL • QB • #8 CMP% 69.1 YDS 2669 TD 24 INT 2 YD/ATT 9.27 View Profile The winner between the Ravens and Steelers on Sunday afternoon in Pittsburgh will be in sole possession of first place in the AFC North. In recent history, the Steelers have had a decisive edge, winning seven of the last eight but all by one score.
This time around, the Ravens are going to win, and they are going to do so emphatically by scoring at least 30 points on the Steelers defense that is allowing the second-fewest points per game in the entire NFL (16.2). All-Pro T.J. Watt has four forced fumbles this season, which is tied for the most in the league with San Francisco 49ers linebacker Fred Warner entering Week 11.
Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson’s past against the Steelers is ugly: he has lost three of his four starts against the Steelers with four total touchdowns and 10 turnovers while registering a 66.4 passer rating in four starts, his worst against any NFL team. None of that will matter against the Steelers on Sunday. The Ravens offense is on a historic run, averaging 7.1 yds/play this season, the most in the Super Bowl era (since 1966).
Why? Because Jackson and running back Derrick Henry are on pace to rewrite the history books. Jackson is on pace to register the best single-season passer rating in NFL history (123.2) and is leading the NFL in nearly every passing metric this season. He is also on pace to become the first player in NFL history with at least 4,000 passing yards and 800 passing yards this season since he is in line to throw for 4,537 yards and run for 914 yards entering Week 11, per CBS Sports Research.
This is an article version of the CBS Sports HQ AM Newsletter, the ultimate guide to every day in sports. You can sign up to get it in your inbox every weekday morning here.
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With superstars all over the field, the Eagles’ offense is almost always bound to find an answer. And even if finding it takes a while, a dominant defense can hold down the fort until it happens. Philadelphia surged past Washington, 26-18, scoring 20 points in the fourth quarter behind another monster Saquon Barkley performance.
Barkley ran for 146 yards — his fourth 140-yard rushing game this season, already tied for most in a season in franchise history — and two touchdowns and added 52 yards receiving. Barkley leads the league in yards rushing (1,137) and scrimmage yards (1,347) this season. In the fourth quarter alone, Barkley had 76 yards rushing and both of his touchdowns. It’s the second time this season he’s had at least 50 yards rushing and two touchdowns rushing in the fourth quarter. No one else has done it even once. He’s a star and a closer. There are many standouts on this defense, but let’s shout out Zach Baun (15 tackles, one tackle for loss, one pass defensed), Reed Blankenship (10 tackles, one interception) and Jalen Carter, who blew up the game-changing drive — more on that in a moment. The Eagles (8-2) have won six straight, and what a job they’ve done after a slow start. This defense was downright bad last year, but it’s been rebuilt at linebacker, cornerback and coordinator (Vic Fangio), and Barkley is showing his enormous value. Philadelphia is absolutely rolling.
👍 Honorable mentions Rico Dowdle is officially the Cowboys’ RB1. Kyler Murray has been awesome. The Lakers are in the top 10 of Colin Ward-Henninger’s NBA Power Rankings. We ranked all 30 NBA City Edition jerseys. Here’s the All-MLB team. The Rays will play their 2025 home games at Steinbrenner Field — the Yankees’ spring training stadium. Here are offseason targets for the Phillies. Christian Barmore practiced for the first time since being diagnosed with blood clots. Florida’s Urban Kalvžar is finally eligible. Lindsey Vonn is coming out of retirement. Kaleena Smith became the first high school women’s basketball player to sign an NIL deal with Adidas. 🏈 And not such a good morning for … untitled-design-2024-11-14t220505-991.png Getty Images THE WASHINGTON COMMANDERS
Two weeks ago, the Commanders were the NFL’s best feel-good story. Now, they’re losers of two straight eminently winnable games, and an offense that was shredding everyone has hit its first bump.
Thursday, things swung heavily in Philadelphia’s favor immediately after Washington, instead of attempting a field goal for a potential 13-12 lead, opted to go for it and failed. The Eagles scored 14 points in the next three and a half minutes to blow it open.
But this performance was concerning beyond one major momentum swing.
Through nine weeks, the Commanders offense had the fourth-highest success rate in the NFL at 51.5%, but that number has since fallen to 44.3%. I think Daniels is still being impacted by the rib injury he suffered in Week 7 against the Panthers. Through the first six games, he had a 71.5% completion percentage and 51 yards rushing per game. In four full games since the injury, he’s at 59.1% and 11.5, respectively. Thursday, Daniels completed just four passes to wide receivers as the offense was unable to get anything going downfield. The mini bye comes at the perfect time for Washington, which is still a strong 7-4 and has a manageable finishing stretch. Last night, though, was ugly.
👎 Not so honorable mentions LeBron James hinted at retiring sooner rather than later. Micah Parsons took a shot at the Giants for letting Barkley get to the Eagles. Deion Sanders says he won’t allow his son Shedeur go to the wrong NFL team. The Mavericks had yet another heartbreaking loss. Here’s why MLB free agency has been quiet. A former Suns employee is suing the franchise for $60 million over allegations of harassment, racial discrimination, retaliation and wrongful termination. 🥊 Preview of Mike Tyson-Jake Paul; Jon Jones-Stipe Miocic at UFC 309 untitled-design-2024-11-14t221923-947.png Getty Images One of the strangest, can’t-look-but-can’t-look-away boxing matches we’ve ever seen is just hours away. Mike Tyson, 58, faces Jake Paul, 27, tonight at AT&T Stadium. Streaming on Netflix, it’s expected to be among the biggest events in the sport’s history, and Tyson slapping Paul during the final staredown only adds to the hype.
There’s a lot to digest. Tyson’s journey to this moment is truly one-of-one, as Brian Campbell explains, and while he’s the underdog, there are paths to victory, including …
Campbell: “Tyson’s peek-a-boo style is difficult to defend — Tyson will be very much considered a live dog and knockout threat in the early going. A huge part of that is his deceptive style of ducking forward behind his high guard and exploding with powerful combinations of fight-ending hooks. Even if Paul uses his muscular, 6-foot-1 frame to tie him up when he gets close, Tyson doesn’t need much space to uncork the kind of uppercuts that could be a problem for Paul.” Brent Brookhouse, meanwhile, has keys to victory for Paul.
Legends like Roy Jones Jr., Lennox Lewis, Tyson Fury, Manny Pacquiao and others have made their picks, as have our experts. Here’s more:
Brent says this is a lose/lose for Paul. Taylor vs. Serrano is well worth your time on the undercard Tomorrow, Jon Jones defends his heavyweight title against Stipe Miocic to headline UFC 309. Miocic, 42, is nearing retirement, and Jones has drawn plenty of ire for refusing to fight interim champion Tom Aspinall for a variety of reasons/excuses. But this fight at New York’s Madison Square Garden still provides plenty of intrigue with arguably the world’s best pound-for-pound fighter facing one of the most accomplished heavyweights ever. Brent has best bets for the event, including …
Brookhouse: “Over 2.5 rounds (+114) — There are a lot of unknowns heading into Jones vs. Miocic beyond that Jones is a heavy favorite to get the win. I’m leaning toward Jones being more wary of Miocic’s power and all-around skillset than he was of Cyril Gane, and Miocic also being more competent on the ground than Gane if he is taken down. That should lead to the fight going past the halfway mark of Round 3.” Here’s more:
Other top fights on the card Jones would be willing to vacate his title for “super fights.” Miocic is focused amid the noise. 🏈 NFL Week 11 picks: Chiefs-Bills, Ravens-Steelers headline AFC showdowns untitled-design-2024-11-14t223942-354.png Getty Images Week 11 has plenty more in store. Let’s start with Chiefs-Bills. Garrett Podell has an excellent preview of how Josh Allen will try to combat Steve Spagnuolo’s defense.
Though Allen said this game is no different than any other, that’s not exactly true. Patrick Mahomes is an underdog — that doesn’t happen much, and he usually wins regardless — and the Bills are getting a key contributor back while the Chiefs just lost one.
So, who wins this clash? In his best bets, Will Brinson says …
Brinson: “Bills ML (-130) — Allen is 3-1 against Mahomes before the postseason rolls around … And unlike in previous years, you can argue the Bills are the better team anyway. Buffalo’s been more dominant for most of the season, even though Kansas City has the better record. They’re a weird level of undefeated … The Bills have enough firepower to overcome this defense and find a way to win the game on Sunday.” Just before that, there’s a classic AFC North showdown between the Ravens and Steelers. Lamar Jackson can’t explain his struggles against Pittsburgh, but I think they end this weekend. Here’s what our experts think:
Pete Prisco | Will Brinson | John Breech | Tyler Sullivan | Jordan Dajani
The CBS Sports HQ AM newsletter is 19-8 after going 1-2 last week. It was our first losing week, and I certainly won’t trust the Jets or the Bears again soon. Let’s bounce back:
Ravens over Steelers 49ers over Seahawks Rams over Patriots 🏈 College football Week 12 preview, picks: Georgia bounce back? Getty Images We’ve been talking about them all week, from their dismal loss to Ole Miss to them falling out of the playoff bracket to them with their backs against the wall. Now, we’re almost there. Can the No. 12 Georgia Bulldogs beat No. 7 Tennessee? (preview) It’ll be a lot easier for Kirby Smart’s bunch if Nico Iamaleava (concussion protocol) can’t play, and the betting line indicates that may be the case, Dennis Dodd notes.
Dodd: “Ten points? At least offensively, Georgia’s in disarray. The Dawgs come into this game 15th out of 16 SEC teams in rushing. Only nine other Power Four programs have more turnovers than Georgia’s 15. Carson Beck’s decline this season is worth a documentary. … Ten points? Not unless walk-on quarterback Gaston Moore takes the field Saturday at Sanford Stadium. … Don’t be surprised if Las Vegas knows beforehand.” Tom Fornelli’s Six Pack also makes a call on the ‘Dawgs and the Vols, as well as a big one in the Big 12 between Utah and No. 17 Colorado.
Here’s more:
Big Ten picks | SEC picks Jerry Palm’s best bets PREVIEWS: No. 3 Texas at Arkansas | No. 20 Clemson at Pitt | No. 22 LSU at Florida Trevor Etienne is out. DJ Lagway is expected back. ⚽ USMNT beats Jamaica; previewing NWSL quarterfinals Getty Images In a game as bumpy as the field it was played on, the USMNT beat Jamaica, 1-0, in the first leg of their Concacaf Nations League quarterfinal. Ricardo Pepi scored in the fifth minute, and Matt Turner made a big save on a penalty kick to give Mauricio Pochettino a win in his first competitive match managing the Americans. The second leg will be played Monday night in St. Louis.
There’s plenty more great soccer over the weekend with the NWSL quarterfinals:
Saturday: Washington Spirit vs. NJ/NY Gotham FC, 12 p.m. (CBS) Sunday: Orlando Pride vs. Kansas City Current, 2:30 p.m. (ABC) The games will feature USWNT stars such as Trinity Rodman (Spirit), Rose Lavelle (Gotham FC) and international stars Marta (Pride), Barbra Banda (Pride) and Temwa Chawinga (Current). I enjoyed Pardeep Cattry’s look at how all four teams made it here and Sandra Herrera’s thoughts on which final matchup would be best.
It’s Week 11 in the 2024 NFL season, but a better way to put it might be: It’s Bills-Chiefs Week.
For years, these two AFC contenders have fought to keep pace with one another. And while only one side, Kansas City, has gone the distance (repeatedly), Buffalo has been a consistent threat, knocking off Patrick Mahomes and Co. in three of their last five head-to-head meetings, including playoffs.
Now, it’s time for them to meet again. CBS Sports has planned special coverage of the upcoming rematch, with “The NFL Today” set to broadcast live from Buffalo, inside the Highmark Stadium parking lot, ahead of kickoff. Fans can join the crew in Lot 6 at Highmark Stadium starting at Noon ET on Nov. 17. But all eyes will surely turn to Mahomes and Josh Allen — the matchup’s heralded quarterbacks — once the players take the field for a potential postseason preview.
In the meantime, we’ve turned our own eyes to the quarterbacks, studying the tape and the numbers to break down which signal-caller — Allen or Mahomes — has the edge in Week 11:
The overview: Allen vs. Mahomes QB RECORD TDS INTS COMP. % YPA RATING RUSH YARDS RUSH TD Josh Allen
8-2
17
4
63.5 7.6 100.2
261 4 Patrick Mahomes
9-0
12
9
69.5 7.1 90.3
167 1 Both star quarterbacks have endured a fair amount of skill-weapon turnover this year — Allen due to an offseason makeover of the wide receiver corps, and Mahomes due to a rash of in-season injuries, including to starters like Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice. Accordingly, both have strained at times to push the ball down the field; Allen has had a few clunkers, failing to hit a 60% completion rate or eclipse 200 passing yards in four games, while Mahomes threw at least one interception in each of his first seven.
Muddying things further is the fact that, on the surface, their production has basically been a wash: Allen has the superior numbers, with eight more touchdowns and a superior passer rating, whereas Mahomes is the shepherd of the NFL’s only perfect record. So what can these numbers — and other advanced statistics — tell us in addition to the eye test? What lies beneath the surface? Let’s proceed.
Note: Advanced statistics referenced below are courtesy of NFL Pro.
Accuracy Mahomes began his career as a fireworks show, storming the NFL with one bomb after another. He’s become much more of a methodical operator the last two seasons, and it shows in his 2024 numbers: He’s hitting a career-high 69.5% of his throws, and his targets have an average separation of 4.2 yards, compared to 3.6 for Allen. Mahomes is also throwing into tight windows just 6.8% of the time — the lowest mark of his career. In other words, he’s taking what’s given more than forcing it downfield.
Edge: Mahomes
Ball control Mahomes has certainly not been a safekeeper of the football since the start of 2023, racking up 23 picks in 25 games. He also outnumbers Allen in total 2024 giveaways, nine to six. But historically, Allen has been more loose with the ball, edging Mahomes in total turnovers (47 to 38) since the start of 2022. It’s part of what makes him so dangerous, for better and worse: a willingness to zip the ball deep or across the field at any given time. It’s shown up recently, as he’s thrown four picks in his last three games alone.
Edge: Mahomes
Big-play magic This is where, historically, both quarterbacks have thrived. But Allen has clearly superseded Mahomes when it comes to highlight-reel heroics in recent years. Since 2023, no quarterback has more total scores (65) than the Bills’ gunslinger. And Allen, unlike Mahomes, still routinely tries to hit the home run, almost tripling the Chiefs quarterback’s career-low deep-throw rate (4.5%) this season. This despite working with an almost entirely remade receiving group headlined by a rookie in Keon Coleman.
Edge: Allen
Rushing impact The plain numbers bear this one out pretty clearly: Allen offers more on the ground, taking off more than twice as often as Mahomes. He’s a bulldozer in the open field. This doesn’t mean Mahomes is a non-factor with his legs; in fact, his own numbers are a bit deceptive, not fully accounting for his knack for killer late-game scrambles. But Allen’s athleticism has also paid off in and around the pocket, where he’s taken 13 sacks to Mahomes’ 20 despite facing more pressure this season.
Edge: Allen
Situational poise Here’s where it gets interesting. Both quarterbacks feast on the blitz: Mahomes has a 102.7 rating against an extra rusher versus an 86.4 mark otherwise, while Allen is even better, posting a 128.4 rating under extra heat. And yet they’ve functioned very differently depending on the scoreboard this year. Allen’s best numbers have come when leading (7 TDs, 2 INTs, 108.0 rating), whereas Mahomes’ best work has come while trailing (8 TDs, 3 INTs, 100.1 rating). The latter remains the king of crunch time.
Edge: Mahomes
Home vs. road splits Away from Arrowhead Stadium, the reigning Super Bowl MVP has been more sluggish, averaging just 6.6 yards per throw with an 81.6 rating. Allen’s also endured a dip in production on the road, but he’s been even better than Mahomes when operating on his own turf, hitting 8.4 yards per attempt and a 121.2 rating at Highmark Stadium. The fact this game comes in Buffalo bodes well for him there.
Edge: Allen
Head-to-head history You wouldn’t believe how similar these quarterbacks are in terms of career production: They’ve played almost exactly the same number of games (104 for Allen, plus 10 playoff games; 105 for Mahomes, plus 18) and scored almost exactly the same number of touchdowns (Mahomes 244, Allen 241). Their face-to-face matchups have really just come down to the magnitude of the stage: Allen is 3-1 against Mahomes in the regular season, while Mahomes is 3-0 in the playoffs. That’s good news for Buffalo here.
Edge: Allen, for this game
The final verdict The tally from our seven categories is as follows:
Josh Allen (4) Patrick Mahomes (3) In summary, it’s pretty safe to say Allen is having the more productive start to 2024, largely exhibiting his trademark playmaking for a top-three scoring offense, whereas Mahomes is resigned to play the role of late-game point guard for a more defensively oriented contender. The latter’s ability to stay composed in close games almost always saddles his evaluation with a favorable asterisk, however, ala Tom Brady with the New England Patriots. So if you want to bet on Allen, this is probably the time do it. Even with a banged-up setup, he’s proven capable of uplifting his group, especially at home. But if you’re looking even farther down the road, perhaps to a possible playoff rematch, well, all bets are off.
